Microsoft released its Windows 11 operating system in late 2021 to the public. Internal data, viewed by Windows Central, suggests that the operating system passed the 400 million monthly active devices mark this year.
Microsoft has not released information on monthly active users to the public. Third-party sites such as Steam’s hardware survey or Statcounter show a slow rise of Windows 11 since its release.
Windows 11 rose from 13.61% in September 2022 to 23.64% in September 2024 on Statcounter. Windows 10, on the other hand, nearly kept its commanding market share lead. The operating system dropped from 71.88% to 71.62% in the period.
Things look a bit better on Steam. Windows 11 has a share of about 37%, but it is still trailing Windows 10’s 57%.
Most of Windows 11’s gains appear to come from Windows 7 and Windows 8/8.1. Microsoft ended support for both operating systems in January 2023 and both have tanked since then.
Windows 11’s rise compared to Windows 10’s
It took Windows 11 two years to reach 400 million devices. While that would sound impressive for many systems, it is not, when compared to Windows 10.
Windows 10 managed to reach that number in a year’s time and it even managed to cross the 1 billion devices mark in 2020.
Granted, the underlying situation was different. Microsoft pushed Windows 10 with free upgrade offers from Windows 7 and Windows 8/8.1 devices. Users could upgrade their devices for free. Not all did, but the free upgrade offer certainly helped push the new operating system into the market.
Microsoft failed to reach the ambitious 1 billion device goal.
When Microsoft released Windows 11, it still let users upgrade for free to the new operating system. Initially, users of Windows 7, 8, 8.1 and 10 could upgrade to free. This changed recently, when Microsoft eliminated the option for Windows 7 and 8/8.1 systems and product keys.
What kept Windows 11 back from rising as quickly as Windows 10 was a change in system requirements. Microsoft changed the operating system’s minimum requirements, which meant that older systems could not upgrade to Windows 11 directly.
More or less any device purchased before 2018 could not be upgraded to Windows 11 using official means.
The end of Windows 7 and 8/8.1
End of Windows 7 and 8/8.1 support in January 2023 benefitted Windows 10 and 11 similarly. Windows 7 and 8/8.1 devices were upgraded to Windows 10, which was still possible at the time.
New devices, bought by Windows 7 and 8/8.1 users benefitted Windows 11 more than it helped Windows 10.
The vast majority of Windows devices are sold with Windows 11 nowadays.
Microsoft believes that Windows 11 devices will reach the 500 million mark in 2024.
Windows Central cites unnamed sources at Microsoft that said the the company’s expectations regarding Windows 11 were “set rather modestly” and that these have been surpassed consistently.
2025 is the year decisions need to be made
Windows 10 will reach end of support in 2025, at least for consumer editions. It will be interesting to see what users will do then. Some may upgrade their devices to Windows 11, or Windows 12, if the rumors of a new operating system are correct.
Many users may not be able to upgrade, because of the system requirements. It is unreasonable to assume that all of these will purchase new Windows devices in 2025.
Some may continue to run Windows 10, even though the operating system is no longer supported by Microsoft. It is unlikely that Microsoft is going to introduce Extended Security Updates for consumers. It has not done so when Windows 7 reached end of support.
Windows 10 users could migrate their devices to Linux. It is a chance for the open source operating system, but solutions need to be created to make the migration as painless as possible.
Verdict: Flop or not
Microsoft may have had higher hopes for Windows 11, but this is disputed in the internal document according to Windows Central. The company has been tight lipped about sales and monthly active devices, and that often means that things are not as good as hoped.
400 million devices is a sizeable number on the other hand. All of these will likely get the option to upgrade to Windows 12, if the operating system is released.
In closing, Windows 11 is not a flop, but it is not a hit either.
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